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    Speculation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
  • In finance, speculation is a financial action that does not promise safety of ... Financial speculation can involve the buying, holding, selling, and short ...
  • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speculation
Questions/Answers
How does speculation impactthe price of oil?
I've heard that oil prices are higher than they would be in a natural supply/demand economy, and that part of this is due to speculation. What is speculation? How is it raising the price of oil? Also, if people or companies are using oil speculation to make money, why don't more people do it?
Speculation is adding to the price of oil. Oil is traded oin the futures market (30 60 or 90) day contracts. If you called your broker and asked to buy $100k worth of oil in 90 days @ $140 a barrel two things could happen. If the price is below your agreed purchase amount you make the difference, but if the price is above that amount you will lose that amount. A big reason most people are not buying these is they can't afford to. Your liquid net worth needs to be an excess of $1,000.000. Future contracts are generally traded in amounts oif $100,000. If you want to make money off oil just buy stock in Exxon Mobil. You don't need a million bucks cash and they won't be losing money anytime soon.
What is the latest speculationon the future of silverprices?
At one time there was speculation that silver could reach prices as high as 200 dollars an ounce... though I never actually believed that prediction the general belief that prices reaching a hundred dollars an ounce were widely accepted. Now I no longer see such optomisim among speculators and in fact I cannot seem to find any reports where somone wants to make any predictions at all. Anyone else heard anything?
"Precious metals" in general are a 'hedge'. Since (allegedly) they have integral value, one only invests in them if one believes the stock market is about to tumble or fail. Since every aspect of daily life in the "West" is now inextricably linked with the World Market, there is no place for 'precious metals' in the thinking person's portfolio. If the Stock Market collapses, the entire economy collapses. If the economy collapses, having a dozen bars of pure gold will be of little or no value; what you will want to have is FOOD or WATER or SOAP or ASPIRIN! For about $200 you can buy a pound of silver, or about 1500lbs of flour. Which do you think will be more useful to you in the event of an economic collapse? Precious metals trading is a useful tool if you are an international bank, but it is of no value to "regular folks", unless they make their living convincing others they should buy precious metals!
What are your thoughts aboutspeculation?
I've been hearing some opinions about speculation. Some blame it for the current economic crisis. Others I've heard say that it should not be regulated. What do you think? Should speculation be regulated? And how much do you think it has hurt our economy? Just want to hear what you think and to learn more about this issue.
Speculation is just another word for gambling. People like to gamble. It makes little sense to regulate it, beyond assuring that people really understand the risks they take. It does not appear that speculation is the cause of the current mess. The problem with mortgages has been the agents were being paid to produce anything and so they produced anything, instead of good investment grade securities. As for oil, it is pure supply and demand issue. Speculation has probably lowered the cost of oil, not the other way around. It provides liquidity in what would otherwise be an illiquid market. Liquidity lowers prices, but you cannot see the lowering because you have to see a liquidity crisis to see the alternative. The banking crisis is from the drying up of liquidity. The speculators have left and there are not enough investors to pick up the slack.
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